Systems Engineering

Risk-Based Selection of EFD Systems

There is a recent trend in the petroleum industry to develop technologies capable of reducing the environmental impact during oil and gas drilling operations. However, these technologies have not been fully integrated into a decision-making methodology capable of combining them into an optimal and Environmentally Friendly Drilling (EFD) system for a given site. The Texas A&M University team introduces two quantitative decision methods (Causal vs. Non-causal) for selecting an EFD system. The Non-causal approach (http://efd.civil.tamu.edu/da) follows a typical full search optimization based on a combination of multi-attribute utility theory and the exhaustive enumeration of all possible technology combinations, as a way to provide a quantitative rationale to select the best set of systems for a given site (herein, a system is defined as a set of technologies). The Causal approach (http://efd.civil.tamu.edu/da1) on the other hand, takes into account the same drilling system components, but introduces the impact of their natural dependencies (e.g., drilling depth affects drilling time, and drilling time governs cost and environmental impact, etc.). The aim of this approach is to help decision-makers select an optimal drilling system for a specific site by minimizing the environmental impact, by maximizing profit, and by accounting for public perceptions and safety. Results show the relevance of introducing causal dependencies between system components during the search of an optimal system, and set the basis for a risk-type of system selection process.

There is an imminent need to focus on the uncertainties associated with the drilling system selection process becase the drilling operation process contains a significant number of uncertainty components such as drilling depth and total drilling time. A new risk-based methodology (Bayesian Artificial Intelligence) has been developed by Dr. Medina-Cetina and Dr. Yu to account for the uncertainty present in the decision-making process for the selection of EFD systems. We would work with stakeholders in workshops to deploy an information site using this framework and document the process so that it could be linked to the EFD Scorecard system.

There are three key deliverables associated with this work scope:

• An engineering report describing a prototype of a risk-based system selection model that will improve the decision-making for selecting an EFD system for a specific site, by minimizing the environmental impact and cost and by maximizing public perception.
• A report defining the link between the EFD Scorecard and the Risk-Based System Selection Methodology for the RPSEA EFD partners.
• Papers and presentations at conferences/journals.